SECULAR BEAR?

While we appear to be making a standard reverse head-and-shoulders bottom in the major averages at the moment, the idea that we are off the races is a bit premature.  To be sure, if you believe in long term trends, we have been in a bear since 2000, and the 2002-2007 move was a feeble bull leg and ultimate bear trap.   According to history, the current secular bear could easily last from 2000 until 2017--and it makes sense.  After we get out of this deflationary scare, inflation will be the next enemy what with ultra low interest rates and a never-ending U.S. printing press.  Thus,  if correct policy action is taken (if we're lucky) then we may be able to fight our way out of inflation by 2017 creating an August of 1982 Reagan bull market scenario.  

Remember though, we were very lucky in 1980 to have Reagan cutting taxes, deregulating AND Paul Volcker having the guts to raise interest rates above 20% to break inflation's back.   We should only hope to so lucky this time around...